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mpc: 7 For the United States, the main question was how long the current downturn would last and how deep it would be. There had been little news in the latest estimate for growth in the fourth quarter of 2007, which was unchanged from the previous release at 0.2%. Data for the first quarter of 2008 so far suggested that growth had been subdued. On the output side, industrial production had risen slightly in January but the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index for manufacturing for February had fallen to a little below the 50 no-change level. The ISM non-manufacturing index had rebounded in February to just above the 50 level from a very low January reading, but had remained well below its historical average. Expenditure indicators were also lacklustre. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book suggested that the slowdown was now broadly based by industry sector and region. Bank lending to the US corporate sector remained robust, but that might reflect the drawing down of credit lines agreed before the deterioration in credit market conditions last August and the inability of banks to sell on corporate loans. Data on both activity and prices suggested that the US housing market had continued to weaken. Despite the fall in the federal funds rate, some households were facing higher interest rates. Consumer confidence measures had fallen further in February, with the Michigan measure hitting a 16-year low. Meanwhile, indicators of inflation had risen. Annual producer price inflation had reached 7.4% in January, while headline inflation according to the personal consumption expenditure deflator and CPI had increased to 3.7% and 4.3% respectively.