mpc: 14 On the expenditure side, survey evidence continued to point to firm investment intentions,
consistent with reports by the Bank's regional Agents. Retail sales had risen in December, and surveys
pointed to firm annual growth in January, though because of the weakness in spending a year earlier
this would be consistent with a broadly flat volume of seasonally adjusted sales on the month. The
Bank's regional Agents had raised their scores for both retail sales and consumer services. There had
been some deterioration in consumer confidence between the two waves of the January GfK survey,
which straddled the Committee's policy meeting, and that might suggest an impact from the most
recent interest rate increase. But there had been little correlation between consumer confidence and
consumer spending in the past, so this was not compelling evidence of slowing consumer spending
growth in response to past interest rate increases. Although it was too early to be sure, there was some
evidence that higher interest rates might be having an effect in the housing market, with a mixed batch
of indicators recently. There had been a sharp drop in mortgage loan approvals in December, and the
preview of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (RICS) survey suggested a continuing fall in
the balance on new buyer enquiries in January. In contrast, the RICS ratio of sales to stocks remained
high. Even if the housing market did show signs of turning, the implications for consumption were by
no means clear there might be different correlations from those recorded in the past, depending on
which factors were currently driving the housing market and household spending.
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