mpc: 3
Longer-term rates had also risen since the March MPC meeting, with nominal and real 10-year
forward rates around 10-15 basis points higher in the United Kingdom, 10-20 basis points higher in the
United States and around 25 basis points higher in the euro area. Since their trough in mid-January,
real long-term forward rates had risen by around 40 basis points in the United Kingdom and the United
States and by around 60 basis points in the euro area, although their levels remained historically low.
The Committee discussed several possible explanations for the recent rises. Asset prices may have
been generally high and bond yields low, in response to increased liquidity generated by
accommodative monetary policies in the major economies. As short-term policy rates in the United
States and euro area had been increased, and the possibility of increasing official rates had been
signaled in Japan, the withdrawal of liquidity might have contributed to a reduction in bond prices. A
second possible explanation was that low yields had simply reflected the balance of global savings and
investment decisions: a pickup in real investment in the major economies would also have caused
bond yields to rise. A third possible explanation was that markets were uncertain about what the
neutral official rate of interest would be in steady state and had been changing their views in response
to policy makers' actions and comments. Overall, it was too early to conclude that the recent rise in
long-term interest rates was likely to be the start of a larger market correction.
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