mpc: 23 UK nominal domestic demand and nominal GDP growth had recovered in the second half of
2005. Output indicators suggested that GDP growth would be above trend in 2006 Q1, with business
services activity particularly strong. It was unclear how the expenditure and output indicators could be
reconciled. It was possible that the weaker indicators of household spending which were heavily
influenced by developments in the retail sector through January and February might not be giving a
complete guide to aggregate consumption, which might subsequently prove to have been firm in Q1.
If consumer spending growth had been weak in Q1, then there might have been some rebalancing
towards other components of demand. Investment indicators seemed to have remained weak and so
this did not seem a likely source of stronger growth in Q1. But net exports might help to fill the gap,
given robust global growth. In addition, it was always possible that output growth might eventually
prove to have been weaker than the indicators currently suggested.
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