mpc: 13 Investment figures had been markedly weaker than expected, but this component of demand was
both more volatile and more prone to large revisions than other components of GDP. The pattern of
past revisions, coupled with the survey data, pointed to the likelihood of significant upward revisions.
Some expenditure by firms was probably in areas that were hard to measure, or on items that were as
yet not counted as investment in the National Accounts, so that perhaps the underlying picture was a
little stronger than recorded in the official data. An upward revision might help reconcile the
investment data with the strength of equity prices discussed above. But it was also possible that the
recent weakness of investment was a genuine phenomenon. The relative weakness of capital goods
output might be consistent with that. There were a variety of possible explanations for weak
investment. The past relationship between the surveys and the official data might have changed. For
example, it was possible that companies might be answering survey questions in regard to their global
investment programme, rather than their investment in the UK. There remained a possibility that an
increased attention on pension fund deficits was adversely affecting firms' investment decisions as
firms tackled their financial obligations before focusing on any business expansion, and sharply rising
energy costs might also have led them to defer spending plans. It was noted that growth had picked up
more strongly in the United States and euro area than in the United Kingdom.
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