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mpc: 13 Investment figures had been markedly weaker than expected, but this component of demand was both more volatile and more prone to large revisions than other components of GDP. The pattern of past revisions, coupled with the survey data, pointed to the likelihood of significant upward revisions. Some expenditure by firms was probably in areas that were hard to measure, or on items that were as yet not counted as investment in the National Accounts, so that perhaps the underlying picture was a little stronger than recorded in the official data. An upward revision might help reconcile the investment data with the strength of equity prices discussed above. But it was also possible that the recent weakness of investment was a genuine phenomenon. The relative weakness of capital goods output might be consistent with that. There were a variety of possible explanations for weak investment. The past relationship between the surveys and the official data might have changed. For example, it was possible that companies might be answering survey questions in regard to their global investment programme, rather than their investment in the UK. There remained a possibility that an increased attention on pension fund deficits was adversely affecting firms' investment decisions as firms tackled their financial obligations before focusing on any business expansion, and sharply rising energy costs might also have led them to defer spending plans. It was noted that growth had picked up more strongly in the United States and euro area than in the United Kingdom.

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