mpc: 6
In the United States, the latest indicators supported a view that the weaker GDP growth observed
in 2005 Q4 would prove to be temporary. Consumption seemed to have bounced back following the
dip from August to October: it had risen by 0.4% in January, following strong growth in November
and December. And the manufacturing and services PMIs had both increased in February. Most
commentators expected growth to slow in 2006, linked to the lagged impact of monetary tightening
and a slowing in the housing market, but there were risks on both sides of this outlook. Reflecting the
strength of past growth, capacity utilization had now moved above its historical average and
unemployment had fallen below some estimates of the short-run natural rate. Headline inflation had
been 4% in January.
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