mpc: 5
Euro-area GDP data for 2005 Q4 had indicated growth of 0.3%, slightly weaker than expected at
the time of the February
Inflation Report. Both private and public consumption had been weaker than
expected, although the fall in household consumption was at odds with the strength of household
borrowing and the recent improvement in consumer confidence. Retail sales had increased sharply in
January, perhaps indicating that the weakness of consumption in Q4 would prove temporary.
Moreover, the output indicators looked consistent with stronger GDP growth in Q1. In particular, a
weighted average of the euro-area Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for manufacturing and
services had increased in January and February. The German IFO index had also been particularly
buoyant recently. It was important not to place too much weight on one country or survey, but overall
the indicators for Q1 seemed quite positive. There had been little of significance in the movements in
euro area price indices over the past month, on either the headline or core measures.
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