mpc: 25 The Committee's central projection, based on its collective judgement and the assumption that
official interest rates followed the path implied by the market yield curve, was for the four-quarter
growth rate of GDP to move slightly above its historical average as the quarters of weak growth in
2005 dropped out of the calculation. It then eased back in the second half of the projection as domestic
demand growth moderated. Compared with November, the profile was a little stronger in the first part
of the projection, but slightly weaker thereafter. The central view implied a steady expansion of
consumer spending, but business investment growth was likely to remain soft in the short term. Net
trade was assumed to make a broadly neutral contribution to GDP growth during the forecast period
with a stronger assumed profile for import penetration, and a weaker assumed profile for UK
exporters' market share, than three months ago.
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