mpc: 14 However, there were several reasons why the economic impact of the oil price rise might be less
than in previous episodes. The oil price in real terms was still low relative to its previous peak in
1979-80 and the oil intensity of production had fallen, as had the share of oil and related products in
consumer spending. In most industrial countries, labour markets had become more flexible and
inflation expectations were better anchored, so that second-round effects on inflation were likely to be
less than before; that would give monetary authorities more scope to address any adverse
consequences of the oil price rise for demand. However, it was too soon to be sure about the
second-round effects on wages and prices, as the first-round effects were still working their way
through the supply chain.
Money, credit, demand and output
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