mpc: 5
A second possible explanation was that the risk premium had increased. The expected volatility
of the major equity indices implied by options prices had increased, possibly reflecting recent
increases in historical volatility. Spreads on investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds had
continued to widen, and were now on average around 30 basis points and 140 basis points respectively
above their March lows. That suggested some combination of a rise in perceived corporate default risk
and greater risk aversion. The change was not surprising given the unusually compressed spreads
earlier this year. The rise in spreads had helped partly to offset the impact of the fall in longer-term
yields on the cost of capital to companies.
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