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mpc: 11 The spot price of oil had risen a little over the month, and was still some 20% higher than at the time of the February Inflation Report. If this increase persisted, it was likely to have material effects on forecasts of inflation. In the short run, the direct impact on costs was likely to dominate. In the longer run, there might be second-round effects on costs ­ if, for example, wage demands were to increase ­ but demand effects were likely to work in the opposite direction. Oil futures prices had also increased further over the past month. Although futures prices were not always a good guide to the prices expected to prevail in the medium term, their upward shift suggested that the pressure on oil prices was not due to short-term supply constraints alone.