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mpc: 24 For most members, the position had changed little since the Committee's February meeting. The two key risks discussed at the February meeting had neither crystallised nor clearly diminished. Members continued to differ in the weights that they attached to each and in the amount of additional evidence that they would need to justify a rise in interest rates. The first key risk was to household spending in the near term. The pickup in January retail sales and signs that the housing market was stabilising perhaps meant that a sharp decline in household spending was less likely. But the available evidence suggested continuing uncertainty about the momentum in consumption growth. If consumer confidence was fragile, a rise in interest rates could dent it further. The second key risk had concerned how rapidly consumer prices would respond to demand and cost pressures. There was still little evidence of inflationary pressures in the supply chain passing through into wages or consumer prices. Recent subdued pay and price outturns might suggest either that there was not a great deal of excess demand in the economy or that the increased availability of immigrant workers and other changes in the labour market might have dampened the upward pressure on earnings from excess demand. More evidence on the current wage round would help to shed further light on those questions.

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