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mpc: 7 Oil prices had risen by more than 20% since the Committee's February meeting, in both dollar and sterling terms. Non-oil commodities prices had also increased. Significantly, the oil futures curve had shifted upwards, with the oil price expected to be over US$40 per barrel over the next three years, well above the level assumed at the time of the February Inflation Report. Although unusually cold weather in Europe and North America had influenced the rise in spot oil prices, lower expectations of future oil supply appeared to have been an important factor behind higher futures prices, suggesting that oil prices might remain at higher levels than thought previously. Higher oil prices would raise the level of producer input and petrol prices, although the relatively high rates of fuel duty in the United Kingdom would limit the impact on UK CPI inflation. If sustained at the current levels, higher oil prices would also slow global growth a little in the medium term.