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mpc: 22 The central projection for CPI inflation, on the same assumption about the path of official rates, was for it to rise gradually to reach the 2% target during the second year, and then to increase a little further. During the first year, the rise was driven by import prices falling less fast and a shortage of domestic capacity. In the second and third years, continued pressure on supply capacity pushed up the inflation rate further. Compared with the November Report, the Committee's central projection for CPI inflation was a little higher.