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mpc: 3 Whereas the increase in short sterling interest rates over the past month suggested that expectations of a reduction in the official repo rate had receded, the average end-year rate expected by economists surveyed by Reuters had fallen a little. However, no respondent expected a change at this meeting; the mean probability attached to `no change' was 85%. According to Reuters, views differed on whether the next move in the repo rate would be up or down. Nevertheless, market uncertainty over the future path of interest rates, as measured by the expected volatility of short sterling rates implied by options prices (implied volatility), had continued to fall.

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