mpc: 6
In the United States, estimated Q1 GDP growth of 1.0% suggested that the recovery remained on
track. An improvement in the labour market was apparently beginning to support consumer
confidence, which, together with the tax rebates being implemented this year, should help to underpin
consumption. Business surveys for April pointed to continuing robust growth. There had been some
significant news about prices. The consumer price index had increased by 0.5% in March to stand
1.7% above its level a year earlier. While part of the rise was attributable to higher energy prices,
measures of core inflation excluding food and energy were also rising. Employment costs had
increased by 1.1% in Q1, the highest quarterly rise for a year. However, the annual rate of consumer
price inflation was still modest and there was probably still some spare capacity in the US economy,
with productivity growing strongly and labour participation likely to rise as employment increased.
The statement issued by the FOMC after its recent meeting had suggested that the risks to price
stability had moved into balance.
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