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mpc: 16 Consumption growth in the first quarter had been robust, judging by the strong retail sales data; the estimate for retail sales in January had been revised up sharply. Motor vehicle registrations had been high. The growth rates of notes and coin and of broad money had remained broadly steady, and the growth rate of total borrowing by individuals was still strong. But there was some tentative evidence that consumer spending might have moderated during the quarter: the CBI Distributive Trades survey suggested some easing in March, consumer confidence had fallen slightly, and unsecured lending had dropped back a little in February. Despite those signs, household spending seemed likely to remain buoyant in the near term, and might also be supported by the strength of the housing market. The average of the Halifax and Nationwide indices had risen by over 5% in the three months to March. House price inflation now looked as if it had been picking up since the middle of last year. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors had reported an increase in the ratio of house sales to stocks in March, the ninth consecutive increase, and the RICS backward- and forward-looking house price balances had risen. The lending data also suggested that the housing market remained strong; the twelve-month growth rate of secured lending to individuals had risen slightly in February.