mpc: 15 Data revisions had helped to resolve past puzzles on the demand side. The GDP revisions
indicated that consumption growth had been slightly weaker in 2003 Q4 and investment growth
somewhat stronger than previously thought. Together with revisions to back data, this implied that the
level of business investment in Q4 had been around 3% higher than expected at the time of the
February
Inflation Report. The ratio of business investment to GDP had drifted upwards throughout
2003. The share of profits in GDP had been increasing and the rate of return in the non-oil corporate
sector was at its highest level since 1999. Combined with most of the evidence on investment
intentions, this suggested that the prospects for investment were improving. However, there were
some contrary indicators. A special survey carried out by the Bank's Agents suggested that investment
between mid-2003 and mid-2004 would be rather muted compared with the previous year, although it
also suggested that investment was primarily intended to raise productive capacity. And, according to
the CIPS index, new orders for investment goods had weakened significantly between January and
March.
Make a comment: