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mpc: 10 In the euro area, GDP growth in 2003 Q4 had been 0.3%, according to the first release (unchanged from the flash estimate), somewhat lower than the MPC had expected at the time of the February Inflation Report. However, final domestic demand had been broadly in line with the February projections: the surprise had been the speed at which the large positive net trade contribution in 2003 Q3 had unwound. On the data available so far, the recovery this year seemed fragile: although industrial confidence was slightly above its long-run average in March (unchanged on the month) and the manufacturing PMI had increased slightly, the services PMI had fallen for the second month running and the German IFO index had fallen below its long-run average for the first time since last October. Although the sharp increase in retail sales in January had not been fully unwound in February, consumer confidence was unchanged in March, remaining below its long-run average.