mpc: 24 Against this background, there were several arguments for raising the repo rate this month, to
which members gave different weights. First, UK final domestic demand in general, and consumption
in particular, were growing more strongly than previously thought and seemed likely to continue to do
so, at least in the near term. That would reinforce the expected gradual build-up in inflationary
pressure. The Committee's February central projections had envisaged that consumption growth
would slow markedly in the first half of this year and would continue at a more modest pace thereafter.
The revised data for 2003 and the latest information on retail sales, combined with the continued
buoyancy of the housing market and the steady recovery in the equities market, made that slowing
seem a less likely near-term prospect. Second, for some members, the pickup in house price inflation
and the continued rapid accumulation of debt by households increased their concerns that, without
policy action, households' financial position could become unsustainable and so increase the
probability of an eventual abrupt adjustment process, complicating the achievement of the inflation
target. On that view, an increase in the repo rate now might reduce such risks. One member judged
that an immediate rise might have a greater impact on household behaviour and delay might entail a
larger increase in the repo rate at a later date. Third, it was arguable that policy should discount the
impact of sterling's appreciation directly on sterling import prices and so on the UK price level. The
balance of news about domestically generated inflation since February was arguably to the upside.
Make a comment: