mpc: 18 There was little sign of inflationary pressures in either the labour market or in goods markets.
The employment rate was a little lower in the fourth quarter than in the third, but so too was
unemployment; and, over the year as a whole, total hours worked were little changed while numbers
employed had increased. The CIPS surveys of employment suggested rather stronger recent
employment growth and were not easy to reconcile with the official data not least because they
excluded the public sector, which accounted for a substantial part of recent employment growth. Part
of the explanation might lie in the fact that the surveys related only to employees and, even on the
official data, employee numbers had fallen less fast in the second half of 2003 than in the first. The
surveys might also under-record the losses of jobs in firms which had closed (though that would
suggest higher inflows into unemployment and inflows had in fact been falling steadily).
Conversely, the Labour Force Survey might under-record employment of workers who had recently
arrived in the United Kingdom from overseas.
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