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mpc: 7 In the United States, the labour market had become the key uncertainty about the sustainability of the recovery. Investment was continuing to increase and this improvement seemed firmly based; production had increased by 0.8% in January; and business surveys remained quite strong. But non- farm payrolls, although they had increased in each of the past five months, were growing only modestly, and less rapidly than the working age population. This recovery in employment was very subdued by comparison with previous cycles. Consumer confidence had fallen sharply in February, apparently because of pessimism about labour market prospects. A lack of sustained employment gains could prove a threat to consumption growth ­ despite the support to spending from recent tax cuts ­ and that in turn could slow the recovery. However, the employment components of the ISM surveys were considerably stronger than at their low points in 2001 and 2002. Recent rapid rates of productivity growth must in part have been cyclical and, as those short-term gains were exhausted, it was reasonable to assume that employment growth would pick up to more normal levels so long as demand growth was sustained.