mpc: 15 The annual growth rate of regular pay in the private sector rose slightly in November.
The annualised three-month-on-three-month growth rate was now one percentage point above its
low point last year. Wage drift the difference between pay settlements and earnings growth
seemed largely to have disappeared, but it was likely to return this year; bonuses in particular were
likely to make a positive contribution to earnings growth. The Bank's Agents had conducted their
annual informal survey of contacts' expectations for the coming pay round, and this suggested that
pay settlements would be at levels similar to those in 2003, although non-wage labour costs were
expected to rise faster, largely because of pension contributions and, over the year as a whole,
higher National Insurance contributions. Difficulties in recruiting new labour had been cited more
often than last year as an important factor in employers' attitudes to pay bargaining. However,
given the recovery in aggregate demand, it was perhaps surprising that there had not been more
reports of labour shortages. It was possible that labour supply including that from overseas had
become more responsive to changes in vacancies and pay.
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