mpc: 11 The signs were that household spending remained robust. Retail sales growth in 2003 Q4 had
been 1.9%, the strongest quarterly growth rate since 2002 Q1, although, as usual, there was
considerable uncertainty about the pattern of spending around Christmas and hence about the
implications for retail sales at the beginning of the new year. Consumer confidence had risen
slightly in January, according to the GfK measure, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The CBI
Distributive Trades survey for January had shown the highest balance of retailers since April 2002
reporting annual growth, although reports from the Bank's Agents suggested that volume growth
had been driven to a large extent by relatively high price discounting for the time of year.
Interpretation was complicated by the shift of spending towards supermarkets and internet retailers
with lower prices. Total lending to individuals had remained robust in December, because of the
strength of secured lending. Unsecured lending growth, which had slowed over 2003 as a whole,
had dropped sharply in December, reflecting strong repayments of credit card debt, possibly
influenced by the expiry of low-interest rate offers. The monetary aggregates were consistent with
continued resilience of consumption. Indicators suggested that there had been little change in the
housing market in December. The rate of increase of house prices had remained strong that month,
according to the average of the rates reported by the Halifax and Nationwide; loan approvals and
particulars delivered had been little changed; and, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered
Surveyors, the ratio of sales to stocks on estate agents' books had risen slightly. House price
inflation had not slowed as much as the Committee had expected last November.
Make a comment: