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mpc: 10 The past month's news about UK activity had generally been positive. According to the preliminary estimate, GDP growth at market prices in 2003 Q4 had been 0.9%, the strongest quarterly figure since 2000 Q1, and broadly in line with the MPC's November central projection. Business surveys had been consistently positive in their messages about the likely strength of demand and output in 2004 Q1: the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply's (CIPS') services business activity balance had suggested that activity had increased at its most rapid rate since mid-1997; the British Chambers of Commerce quarterly survey showed sharp improvements in sales and orders balances for both the manufacturing and services sectors; the CBI quarterly Industrial Trends survey had reported a marked and broadly based improvement in the prospects of the manufacturing sector, and the largest increase in the output balance since the survey began; and the CIPS manufacturing PMI had stayed in January at a level not seen since December 1999, with a sharp rise in new orders offset by a sharp fall in stocks, some of which was probably involuntary and so consistent with strong demand. The Bank's Agents had reported that manufacturing orders and output continued to improve and that growth in services output was still gathering pace. Given these indicators, which reflected actual activity as well as expectations, it was likely that GDP growth in 2004 Q1 would exceed that in 2003 Q4. There had also been a sharp rise in reported investment intentions in both services and manufacturing; according to the Bank's Agents, these were around their highest level for three years. The CIPS manufacturing index for new orders for investment goods industries had been above 60 for three months now, the highest level since August 1995. This suggested that firms' confidence in future demand had risen significantly; and there might also be a backlog of postponed investment projects in the pipeline.