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mpc: 7 The latest estimate of GDP growth in the euro area in 2003 Q3 was 0.4%, unchanged from the previous release. Data revisions had reduced but not eliminated the puzzle of the apparently strong contribution of net trade in the third quarter despite the strength of the euro. Indeed, one possible explanation ­ that producers had been reducing their margins in order to maintain sales volumes ­ now looked less plausible in the light of upward revisions to the estimated export deflator. But trade data for October and November suggested that there had in any case been a reduction in the value of exports from the euro area in the fourth quarter, and it seemed unlikely that net trade would continue to drive the euro-area recovery. Estimates of euro-area GDP growth in the fourth quarter were not yet available, but German data for 2003 as a whole implied that Q4 GDP growth there was likely to have been around 0.3%. The IFO index (for western Germany) had risen a little in January, because of a rise in the `current situation' component, which was consistent with growth continuing in 2004 Q1.