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mpc: 5 Evidence of a more broadly based recovery in the world economy had continued to accumulate. In the United States, quarterly GDP growth had been 1% in 2003 Q4, according to the advance estimate. As expected, this was below the rate of growth in the third quarter, but still strong, and had probably been affected by erratically low government spending. Investment growth had slowed on the quarter and had been a little weaker than expected, but the overall picture of a broadly based revival of investment was still intact. Output indicators had been consistent with continuing robust growth, with the twelve-month growth rate of industrial production rising in December, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM's) manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in January at its highest level since December 1983 and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI increasing sharply. Although the stock of broad money had fallen again in December, its velocity remained well below the rates prevailing in the late 1990s. The Federal Reserve's most recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey suggested that credit conditions for corporate borrowers had eased while those for households had tightened a little, thus counteracting to some extent the past imbalance between investment and consumption growth. Total bank lending to large and medium-sized firms had risen, slightly, for the first time since 2000. Indeed, banks had reported that companies were finding it easier to raise internal funds and to borrow from outside the banking system, so the bank lending data probably underestimated corporate spending growth. Consumption growth had, as expected, fallen in the fourth quarter, as growth of spending on durable goods had slowed. Consumers ma y have been cautious because of uncertainty about job prospects: contrary to market expectations, non-farm payrolls had barely increased in December. However, the household-based employment survey, which might be better at capturing jobs created in new firms, painted a stronger picture, and new and continuing unemployment claims had continued to decline. Consumer confidence measures had rebounded in January, mortgage refinancing had picked up and surveys of activity in the housing market had remained strong, so it seemed likely that household spending would hold up.