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mpc: 14 The September Index of Production release had been provided ahead of publication to the Committee at its November meeting. The latest ONS release had shown a further fall in manufacturing production in October. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) survey manufacturing balance had picked up in November, implying the strongest growth since July, although the CBI Monthly Industrial Trends Survey and the Bank's regional Agents' contacts had painted a more subdued picture. There were also signs of weaker capital goods orders in the fourth quarter. The picture for the service sector in Q4 remained more robust: the latest CIPS services survey balances for business activity and new orders had both increased in November. The CIPS construction survey had also remained firm. Putting all the evidence together, growth in Q4 still seemed likely to pick up to around trend, broadly consistent with the November Inflation Report.