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mpc: 26 A key risk to the world economy lay in the oil market. The Committee might have underestimated the effect on activity and inflation of the rise in oil prices to current levels. Another risk to the world outlook was the possibility of substantial exchange rate movements associated with the eventual correction of the high US current account deficit. The possible consequences for UK activity and inflation would depend on the impact on activity in UK export markets and on how sterling exchange rates reacted.