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mpc: 8 Oil prices had fallen on the month, but they had been volatile and the price of Brent crude had risen above US$50 per barrel during the period. Oil prices remained at significantly higher levels than at the time of the August Inflation Report. The impact of oil prices on global growth would probably be relatively small if they remained around current levels, but there was a downside risk if business and consumer confidence were damaged. There had been some signs of possible upward pressure of higher oil prices on inflation beyond the direct impact from increases in oil and petrol prices themselves. In the euro area, the flash estimate for annual HICP inflation had risen to 2.5% in October. In the United States, the annual rate of `core' CPI inflation had picked up to 2.0% in September. The annual inflation rate for `core' intermediate goods prices in the United States was at its highest rate since May 1995, although finished goods price inflation had been more stable.