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mpc: 22 The August Inflation Report had described a central projection, conditioned on the gently rising path for the repo rate implied by the market yield curve at the time, in which the world economy maintained a strong and broadly based recovery, the UK economy also showed robust growth in activity, and CPI inflation rose to around the 2% target in the second year of the forecast. There was now a good deal of subsequent information to assess. The fall in sterling and in UK market interest rates, and the rise in equity prices, would all tend to support activity and inflation. Broad money growth was increasing, and unsecured lending growth had also turned up. But there were signs that output had been growing less strongly in the third quarter than previously expected. Activity and inflation in the housing market were easing. The labour market, although tight, had not tightened further, and consumer price inflation had fallen further below target. In the global economy, it was likely that activity growth in the United States and Japan would pick up from the slower rates in Q2, although US indicators in Q3 were mixed and perhaps less buoyant than expected; the euro area outside Germany seemed likely to maintain growth at around its trend rate; and prospects in non- Japan Asia looked strong. The further rise in the oil price was unlikely to persist in full, although there were substantial risks to this outlook.