mpc: 14 Retail sales were showing some signs of slower growth, and the Bank's regional Agents reported
that some retailers were disappointed with their sales in November. The GfK measure of consumer
confidence had fallen a little, largely because consumers were less confident that it was a good time to
make a major purchase. But that was perhaps to be expected, given the increase in interest rates and
the extensive press commentary on the dangers of excessive household borrowing. The latest CBI
Distributive Trades survey showed less buoyancy in retail sales in November, and falls in optimism in
all three distribution sectors. The growth of unsecured lending, while still rapid, had also eased
continuing a pattern that had now been evident for some months. This might be a better indicator of
the immediate outlook for consumer spending than the growth in secured borrowing, as that was
driven largely by house prices and housing market turnover. But the easing in unsecured borrowing
growth could simply reflect substitution of secured for unsecured borrowing, a shift which was both
cost-effective and was being encouraged by lenders. It was also noted that credit card borrowing
growth remained strong.
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