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mpc: 15 had reduced GDP growth by 0.5% in Q4. Total exports of goods and services had fallen by 1.8%, and imports had fallen by 0.2%. A27 Turning to 2002 Q1, retail sales volumes had fallen by 0.3% in January, following a 0.5% fall in December. In the three months to January 2002, growth had eased to 0.9%, compared with growth of 1.3% in the three months to December 2001. But the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades survey had suggested that growth in retail sales volumes would increase in the coming months. The expected sales balance had risen to +38, although the reported sales balance had eased slightly to +33. Consumer confidence was broadly unchanged in February. The GfK index had been +5 in February, compared with +6 in January. The MORI measure of consumer confidence had fallen to -21 from -20 over the same period. A28 The Nationwide house price index had risen by 1.6% in February, taking the annual growth rate to 14.0%. The Halifax house price index had increased by 1.5%, taking its annual growth rate to 16.9%. Preliminary figures for The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (RICS) balance of estate agents reporting increased prices over the previous three months had increased to +49 in February from +47 in January. Particulars delivered had fallen by 3,000 in January, to 121,000. But transactions in the three months to January had been 0.8% higher than in the three months to October, and 1.3% higher than in the same period a year earlier. A29 The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) manufacturing activity index had been 53.5 in February, the first value above the no-change level of 50 for a year. The orders index had also picked up, to 53.4, the highest level for a year. The CBI manufacturing Monthly Trends survey had also suggested some improvement in February -- the expected output index rose to +1 from -13 in January. A30 The CIPS service sector survey had reported a further improvement in service sector activity in February. The activity index had risen to 52.1, from 51.4 in January. The CBI/ Deloitte & Touche service sector survey had also suggested a slight improvement in prospects for the service sector.