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ANNEX: SUMMARY OF DATA PRESENTED BY BANK STAFF

A1 This Annex summarises the analysis presented by Bank staff to the Monetary Policy Committee on 31 August in advance of the meeting on 5-6 September 2001. At the start of the Committee meeting itself, members were made aware of information that had subsequently become available, and that information is included in this Annex.

I

The international environment

A2 According to the Bank's latest estimate, world industrial production had fallen by 2.5% in the year to June, compared with a fall of 1.2% in the year to May. Growth forecasts for 2001 from the Consensus Economics survey had been revised down for Japan (by 0.1 percentage points, to -0.2%), and for the euro area (by 0.1 percentage points, to 2.0%). They had been revised up for the United States (by 0.1 percentage points, to 1.7%). A3 Since the Committee's previous meeting, the spot price for Brent crude oil had risen by around $1.80, to around $26.60 per barrel; the Economist industrial commodity index had fallen by 0.9%; and the Economist food commodity index had fallen by 1.6%. A4 In the euro area, Italian GDP had fallen by 0.1% in Q2. It had risen by 0.8% in Q1. German GDP had been unchanged in Q2, compared with growth of 0.4% in Q1. The expenditure components of German GDP in Q1 had been revised, so that consumption was estimated to have risen by 1.0%, compared with 0.1% in the previous release. In Q2, German consumption had risen by 0.9%. Construction sector investment in Q1 had been revised up, but still showed that the sector had been in recession. The West German IFO business confidence indicator had risen to 89.8 in July, from 89.5 in June. The euro-area Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) had risen to 47.6 in August, from 47.3 in July. That had been the first increase in the index since April 2000. The volume of euro-area retail trade had increased by 0.6% in June. A5 The euro-area unemployment rate had been unchanged at 8.3% in July. The German unemployment rate had been unchanged at 9.3% in August. Euro-area producer price inflation had fallen to 3.3% in the year to June, from 3.7% in the year to May. German producer price inflation had fallen to 3.1% in the year to July, from 4.3% in the year to June. Annual headline euro-area inflation, as measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), had fallen to 2.8% in July, compared