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mpc: 2 A5 Manufacturing output in the United States had risen in March for the first time in six months, which had reflected a strong recovery in motor vehicle output. The National Association of Purchasing Managers' (NAPM) index had risen from 43.1 to 43.2 in April, reflecting a pick-up in the new orders component but weaker employment and inventory indices. Non-farm payrolls had fallen by 223,000 in April, and manufacturing payrolls had fallen by 104,000. The unemployment rate had risen to 4.5% in April, from 4.3% in March, and initial claims for unemployment insurance had continued to rise. A6 Real consumption in the United States had risen by 0.2% in March compared with the previous month. Consumer confidence had fallen in April: the Conference Board measure had fallen from 116.9 to 109.2. Headline CPI inflation had fallen from 3.5% to 2.9% in March, largely due to the lower energy price inflation. The core rate, excluding food and energy, had remained unchanged at 2.7%. The Employment Cost Index had risen by 1.1% in Q1 compared with the previous quarter. A7 There had been a recovery in US equities, and the S&P500 had risen by 7.7% in April. High-yield credit spreads had been broadly unchanged, with the exception of the telecoms sector in which spreads had narrowed. That had been consistent with the rise in telecoms equity prices in April. A8 The slowdown in industrial production in the largest euro-area countries had been moderate up to February, but the European Commission industrial conference survey in April had pointed to a sharper slowdown to come. German industrial production had increased by 1.4% in the year to March, compared with a rise of 4.8% in the year to February. Consumer confidence had remained at high levels in April. Consumer confidence for the euro area had been unchanged for the third consecutive month. A9 In the euro area, the annual rate of growth of M3 had increased to 5.0% in March from 4.7% in February. Euro-area PPI inflation had fallen to 4.1% in the year to March from 4.5% in February, and the April price expectations survey had pointed to further falls in the coming months. Headline HICP inflation had remained unchanged at 2.6% in the year to March but core inflation (HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) had increased to 1.8%. Non-energy industrial goods inflation had increased to 1.3% in March from 1.2% in February. A10 Japanese industrial production had fallen by 1.5% on the year in March. This had been driven mainly by the electrical machinery sector. Services activity, however, had increased by 4.5% in the