mpc.theyserveforyou.com

mpc:

ANNEX: SUMMARY OF DATA PRESENTED BY BANK STAFF

A1 This Annex summarises the analysis presented by Bank staff to the Monetary Policy Committee on 30 March 2001, in advance of its meeting on 4-5 April 2001. At the start of the Committee meeting itself, members were made aware of information that had subsequently become available, and that information is included in this Annex.

I The international environment

A2 The spot price for Brent crude oil had fallen by just over $1 since the Committee's previous meeting, to around $25 per barrel. The Economist industrial commodity index had fallen by 1.4% in March. The Economist soft commodity price index had also fallen (by 1.7%) in March, due to weaker coffee and sugar prices. World industrial production growth had slowed to 3.3% in the year to January, from 4.2% in the year to December. Consensus growth forecasts for 2001 had been revised down in March by 0.1 percentage points for the United States (to 1.9%) and the euro area (to 2.7%), and by 0.2 percentage points for Japan (to 1.2%). A3 In the United States, post-tax profits had fallen for the first time in six quarters in Q4, but the fall had been exaggerated by settlements of legal claims by tobacco firms. The latest Senior Loan Officer Survey had shown that credit conditions had tightened further between January and March. The survey had shown falling demand for funds, which had been driven mainly by reduced capital expenditure. But aggregate lending data had shown that bank lending to firms continued to strengthen in February. Orders growth in capital goods (excluding erratics) had remained on a downward trend in February. A4 Business inventory growth had continued to slow in January. Slower growth had also been indicated by the National Association of Purchasing Managers inventory component, which had remained below its historic average for the previous six months. Industrial production had fallen further in February. Industrial capacity utilisation in February had dropped to its lowest level since 1992. Manufacturing output had decreased by 0.5% on the month in February, and high-tech production growth had slowed further.