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mpc: 5 A27 Manufacturing output had fallen by 1.6% in September 2001, reversing the 1.2% rise that had occurred in August. For Q3 as a whole, manufacturing output had fallen by 0.8%. The fall had beenmore than accounted for by a fall of 5.6% in the output of the electrical and optical sector. A28 In terms of the expenditure breakdown, retail sales volumes had grown by 0.2% in September, and by 1.5% in Q3 as a whole. Annual growth of retail sales had risen to 6.2% in Q3. Annual growthof private vehicle registrations had increased to 26% in Q3. This had followed an easing in growth inthe first two quarters of 2001. However, the CBI Distributive Trades survey for October had suggesteda decline in activity in the retail sector. A29 There had been tentative signs of an easing in the housing market. Both the Nationwide and Halifax house price indices had fallen by 0.5% in October. Loan approvals data had also suggested aslight easing in housing market activity. A30 The GfK survey balance of consumer confidence had fallen to -5 in October from -1 in September. There had been a particularly pronounced fall in households' confidence regarding futuregeneral economic developments. There had been a slight recovery in the MORI measure of consumerconfidence in October, but the balance had remained low. A31 Annual rates of return on capital had continued to fall in Q3. Rates of return in the manufacturing sector had remained weak, both in absolute terms and relative to the service sector. TheBCC survey for Q3 had reported a weakening in investment intentions in the manufacturing and servicesectors. A32 Total goods export volumes had fallen by 1.4% and total goods import volumes by 2.9% in the three months to August compared with the three months to May. In Q3, exports of goods to non-EUcountries had fallen by 1.5% on the previous quarter, while imports of goods had fallen by 4.1%. A33 The BCC and monthly CIPS surveys had both suggested that there had been a further decline in service sector business confidence in the three months to September 2001. The decline had beenmodest, but the main part of both surveys had been conducted before the terrorist attacks on11 September. The CIPS services survey for October had reported a more pronounced fall in servicesector confidence and activity. A34 For the manufacturing sector, the BCC survey had also suggested a moderate decline in confidence. But the CBI survey, which had been conducted after 11 September, had recorded asignificantly larger fall.