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mpc: 5 forecast. The Budget projections had been dependent on the Treasury's 2¼% trend growth assumption. A19 The figures for cyclically adjusted net borrowing had been similar to those for the unadjusted deficit, because an output gap of close to zero had been projected. Very little of the change since the Pre-Budget Report had been ascribed by the Treasury to the cycle. Cyclically adjusted net borrowing in the Budget had been estimated at -1.2% of GDP in 1999/2000, and projected at -0.5% in 2000/01, -0.3% in 2001/02, and +0.5% in 2002/03. A20 The Treasury had expected that the Golden Rule would be met throughout the next five years with a small margin of safety, with the cyclically adjusted surplus on current budget declining to 0.7% in 2004/05 from 1.8% in 1999/2000. The ratio of net debt to GDP had already been below 40%, the Treasury's benchmark, and had been projected to fall to around 33% in 2002/03 and 2003/04.

IV Demand and output

A21 Quarterly GDP growth had been unrevised at 0.8% in Q4 but the level of GDP had been revised up by just under 0.1%. Final domestic demand growth had been revised up to 1.3% in Q4 and the annual growth of final domestic demand had been revised up to 4.4%. Stockbuilding had been revised down; it contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in Q4, down from the 1 percentage point reported in the previous GDP release. The net trade contribution had been unchanged at -1.2 percentage points. Revisions had brought the expenditure, output, and income measures of GDP closer together. A22 Household consumption growth in Q4 had been revised up to 1.1%, but there had been some downward revisions to earlier quarters so that the level of consumption in 1999 Q4 was broadly unchanged. Within the total, services had grown by 2.2% on the quarter, and spending on durable goods had risen by 0.3%, while spending on non-durable goods had risen by 0.2%. Cars had contributed little to durables growth in 1999 but spending on other durables had grown by 12.9% in the year to Q4. Real government consumption had been revised up by more than £1 billion by 1999 Q4 with similar-sized revisions to nominal government spending. The estimates of whole- economy investment had been little changed for 1999 Q4 but general government investment had