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undertaken for the
Inflation Report, and the opportunity this provided to set out the Committee's
thinking in detail, were valid reasons not to move this month unless there was a strong case to do so.
Third, for some, the volatility in equity markets introduced a possible downside risk which might
mean that any increase in rates this month would need to be reversed soon afterwards. Finally, the
imbalances in the economy, manifested in another fall in manufacturing production, seemed to have
worsened. An increase might exacerbate these imbalances and it was possible that the weakness in
some sectors might feed through into the rest of the economy. With inflation running below target,
and expected to continue to do so for a while, there was no pressing reason to raise rates
straightaway. For these members, no change in the repo rate was needed this month, although for
some of them it was more likely than not that there would need to be an increase in rates in due
course.
32 On a second view, although the news over the month was mixed, it had on balance pointed to
somewhat higher prospective inflation, which was sufficient to tip the balance for some who had
been close to voting for higher rates in March. The fog surrounding some of the data around the
millennium date change had begun to clear. A rise in rates would no longer come as a big surprise to
the market and might not lead to much change either in short-term interest rate expectations or in the
exchange rate. To delay moving rates could lead to expectations that more would need to be done
later, to rein back the unsustainable growth of domestic demand. While the
Inflation Report would
provide an opportunity to analyse recent developments in more detail, and set out the thinking of the
Committee at greater length, this argument was not by itself a conclusive reason for delay. Finally,
the Committee had decided in March that the timing of the Budget would not be a constraint on
moving rates either that month or this. On balance therefore a rise in the repo rate of 25 basis points
was needed this month.
33 The Governor invited members to vote on the proposition that the Bank's repo rate be
maintained at 6.0%. Six members of the Committee (the Governor, David Clementi,
Charles Goodhart, DeAnne Julius, Ian Plenderleith and Sushil Wadhwani) voted for the proposition.
Mervyn King, Willem Buiter and John Vickers voted against, preferring a rise in rates of 25 basis
points.
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