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mpc: 5 A22 Private consumption (including that of non-profit institutions serving households) had grown by 0.8% in 1999 Q4. Private consumption had grown by 4.4% in the year to 1999 Q4, thehighest growth rate since 1989 Q2. There had been significant upward revisions to consumptiongrowth in the first half of 1999. This had reflected new data on alcohol spending: the level ofconsumption in 1999 Q3 was 0.5% higher than had previously been thought. A completebreakdown of consumption for Q4 was not yet available. Government consumption had risen by0.7% in Q4, unchanged from Q3. Total investment (including acquisitions less disposals ofvaluables) had grown by 1.7% in 1999 Q4. There had been significant revisions to investmentgrowth in 1999: the revised level of total investment in 1999 Q3 was 1.1% higher than hadpreviously been thought. Business investment had risen by 1.2% in Q4, and was 3.8% higherthan a year earlier. Within this, manufacturing investment had fallen by 2.9% in Q4, whileservice sector investment had risen by 3.0%. Total company profits had fallen by 0.3% in Q4, butwere 8.0% higher than a year earlier, and corporation tax data had also suggested that companyprofits had improved. A23 Inventories had made a positive contribution to GDP growth in 1999 Q4. Including the alignment adjustment, inventories had risen by £0.6 billion in Q4, compared with a fall of £1.3billion in Q3. The CBI Monthly Trends survey in February had reported that manufacturers stillperceived their stocks to be more than adequate, though the balance was below the long-runaverage. Other surveys had pointed to a drawing down of stocks since the new year. A24 Net trade had contributed -1.2 percentage points to GDP growth in 1999 Q4, the first negative quarterly contribution since 1999 Q1. Total exports of goods and services had fallen by1.6%, while imports had grown by 1.8%. Exports of goods to non-EU countries had fallen by5.4% in Q4, partly reversing the increase in Q3. A25 Turning to indicators of Q1 activity, manufacturing output had fallen by 0.4% in January. Retail sales volumes had risen by 1.5% in January, consistent with the British Retail Consortium(BRC) survey. Growth in retail sales volumes had continued to exceed that of retail sales values.The CBI Distributive Trades survey had shown a total balance of +47 retailing respondentsreporting higher sales in February compared with a year ago, up from +29 in January, and furthergrowth had been expected in March. The MORI measure of consumer confidence had fallensharply to -10 in February and the GfK confidence index (which had a bigger sample and hadhistorically been less volatile) had fallen a little to +3.1, though confidence about households'own situation remained firm. Private new car registrations in the three months to February hadfallen by 12.4% on a year earlier. Total new registrations had fallen by 5.2% over the sameperiod.