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mpc: 5 September to November compared with the previous three months. The LFS measure of employment had risen slightly over the same period, with part-time employment falling and full-time employment rising. Total hours worked had fallen slightly. Survey-based indicators of recruitment intentions remained strong in the services sector and had picked up in manufacturing. The British Chamber of Commerce indicator of recruitment difficulties had been stable, although the Bank's regional Agents were reporting increased skill shortages compared with the previous quarter. 15 On recent developments on pay, some members drew encouragement from public sector settlements, on the grounds that they could have a useful demonstration effect. But there was also concern that the earnings data would be difficult to interpret over the coming months given that financial sector and millennium-related bonuses were expected to be strong. 16 The earnings and settlement data continued to diverge. On the Average Earnings Index (AEI) measure, earnings had grown at an annual rate of 4.9% in the three months to November, and had persistently been higher than had been expected at the time of the Committee's November Inflation Report. Wage drift appeared to be increasing as settlements had, on average, been running at around 3½% over recent months, and on most measures were lower in January than a year ago. The regional Agents' survey of the prospect for earnings growth in 2000 ­ summarised in the Annex ­ also showed a divergent picture: settlements were, on balance, expected to be weaker in 2000, but total pay per employee was on balance expected to rise at a faster rate than in 1999. 17 It was possible that increasing wage drift was a sign of tight labour market conditions. Alternatively, the wedge between settlement and earnings growth might be accounted for by increases in profit-related ­ or performance-related ­ pay, which might more closely reflect productivity improvements. In that case it would not necessarily signal increasing pressure on prices. However, while measured productivity growth had recovered in recent quarters, it was now only broadly in line with the past long-run trend. It was difficult to know whether there had been improvements in productivity that were not reflected in the official data. Views differed on this. 18 Members placed different weight on the earnings and settlement numbers. Overall, the Committee concluded that, partly reflecting the recent stronger-than-expected outturns of the AEI, the path for earnings growth would be higher than had been assumed in the November projections.