mpc:
4
rate rise in February. Real and nominal zero-coupon rates had also been lower across the curve.
Survey-based inflation expectations had changed little on the month.
A16
Accompanying the decline in gilt yields, there had been substantial falls in ten-year swap
rates and A-rated corporate bond yields. A broadly similar picture had emerged at other maturities,
and for other credit ratings. Non-gilt sterling bond issuance, particularly of long-maturity bonds and
floating-rate notes, had continued to be strong. A significant proportion of new sterling issuance had
been by supranationals and other non-UK corporations.
A17
Falls in short-maturity swap rates had been closely tracked by two-year fixed-rate mortgage
rates. In contrast, two-year discounted floating mortgage rates had been rising over the year. But
these changes in relative quoted mortgage rates had not boosted the share of fixed-rate mortgages in
new business.
A18
Since the previous MPC meeting, the FTSE All-Share index had fallen by 3.2%. Falls had
occurred in most sectors with the IT sector declining most. Since April the FTSE had outperformed
other broad-based international equity markets. One possible explanation for this was that the IT and
telecoms sectors had a lower weight in the FTSE compared with other indices such as the S&P 500.
Excluding these two sectors, the FTSE All-Share and S&P 500 indices had increased by 3.0% and
1.1% respectively since April.
A19
Over recent months, there had been a greater number of profit warnings compared with the
same period in 1999, and so far these were more heavily concentrated in the IT sector in Q4 than in
Q3. The Merrill Lynch survey of UK fund managers had also shown a decline in expected earnings
per share for 2001.
A20
Since the previous MPC meeting, the sterling exchange rate index (ERI) had fallen slightly
by 1.5% to 105.4, as sterling depreciated against the euro but appreciated against the US dollar and
the yen.
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