mpc:
3
October before the base effects of the rapid rise in banknotes ahead of the millennium date change
had been taken into account, which were estimated to have depressed the twelve-month growth rate.
The three-month annualised growth rate of notes and coin rose to 10.5% in November from 9.8% in
the previous month. Some of this strength had been due to a temporary increase in cash holdings
relating to government winter allowance payments.
A11
The twelve-month growth rate of M4 had remained strong, although it had fallen from 9.1%
in September to 8.7% in October. However, the fall in the twelve-month growth rate of M4
excluding other financial corporations (OFCs) had been more pronounced, from 7.5% to 6.6%. The
twelve-month growth of M4 lending excluding securitisations had remained unchanged at 13.2%,
while the growth of M4 lending excluding OFCs had fallen slightly to 11.6%.
A12
The twelve-month growth rate of households' M4 lending excluding securitisations had
fallen slightly to 9.8% in October. On a preliminary estimate, the level of mortgage equity
withdrawal had fallen from £3.3 billion in Q2 to £2.4 billion in Q3. Unsecured lending to
individuals had risen by £1.5 billion in October. There had been a small net outflow of households'
deposits, with the twelve-month growth of households' M4 having fallen from 6.1% to 5.4%. This
may have partly been explained by the unwinding of the effect on households' M4 of
Scottish Widows windfall payments.
A13
The number of loan approvals for new mortgages and particulars delivered had risen during
October, but only very moderately, suggesting that housing market activity had been broadly flat.
However, the value of loan approvals had risen quite sharply, partly due to increased remortgaging
activity.
A14
The twelve-month growth rate of private non-financial corporations' (PNFCs) M4 lending
excluding securitisations had fallen slightly to 16.4% in October, while the growth rate of PNFCs'
M4 fell to 11.5%. Net recourse by corporates to the banking sector had picked up in Q3. This was
associated with a pick-up in the stock-output ratio in Q3. Both OFCs' M4 and M4 lending had been
strong, though much of this had represented short-term distortions.
A15
Short-term nominal interest rates had fallen significantly since the Committee's previous
meeting, continuing a downward trend in near-term expectations that had begun after the last repo
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