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mpc: 7 conducted early in November, showed a small fall (perhaps related to uncertainty concerning possible fuel protests) while the MORI index had recovered quite sharply. But reports from the Bank's regional Agents suggested that there was as yet little sign of a slowdown in consumption. 25 Investment had again grown more slowly than expected. In Q3 the level of investment was unchanged, once net acquisitions of valuables were excluded. This raised some doubts as to whether investment would grow as rapidly as projected in the November Report. The Bank's regional Agents were now reporting some caution among their contacts about investment plans, not just in manufacturing but also in services, reflecting overcapacity in sectors such as leisure. Profit warnings were up on a year ago, particularly in the IT sector; some companies were faced with less favourable financing conditions now that their equity prices had fallen and credit spreads had widened. Once the oil sector was excluded, both gross and net rates of return for PNFCs had declined since 1998 Q1. But the level of investment as a share of GDP remained high by historical standards, at least on the basis of constant price measures. 26 Government consumption had grown by 0.6% in Q3, well down on its growth rate in the previous quarter, suggesting that unless there were to be a marked acceleration in spending in the next two quarters, departments would spend less than had been planned for this financial year. If public spending were to continue to grow more slowly than forecast, there would be more time for private spending to slow without the overall growth in demand placing excessive strains on the productive capacity of the economy. 27 In recent quarters stockbuilding had risen quite sharply; in the year to 2000 Q3 changes in stockbuilding had accounted for 1.1 percentage points of the 2.9% increase in GDP. If this rise was predicated on expected increases in final demand, stockbuilding could fall sharply if these expectations were not fulfilled. In that sense the inventory cycle represented a downside risk to activity. 28 Surveys by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) showed stronger output growth in manufacturing, while in services the CIPS index remained at 57, well above the neutral 50 level. However, the CBI Deloitte and Touche Services Survey suggested that while volumes continued to rise, particularly in consumer services, optimism had fallen, with the decline most marked in business and professional services.