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production in Asia had been 16.1% higher in September than a year ago. However, the strength of
several of the larger Asian economies had been accounted for by net trade, leading to a downside risk if
the United States, one of their larger export markets, were to slow substantially.
II
Monetary and financial conditions
A10 The twelve-month growth rate of notes and coin had fallen back in October, from 8.8% to 8.0%.
The fall was thought largely to reflect the impact of the petrol supply disruption, which had led banks to
build up, and then unwind, precautionary cash holdings in September. Underlying narrow money
growth had clearly picked up since the summer.
A11 The twelve-month growth rate of M4 had risen to 9.1% in September. Excluding OFCs, twelve-
month growth had picked up to 7.7%. M4 lending excluding securitisations had also strengthened in
September to a twelve-month growth rate of 13.3%; excluding OFCs, M4 lending growth had picked up
to 11.9%.
A12 The twelve-month growth rate of households' M4 had increased to 6.3%. Much of the pick-up
had occurred in interest-bearing time deposits, which have a lower weighting in households' Divisia
than in households' M4. As a result, the pick-up in the Divisia measure had been more subdued: the
twelve-month growth rate had risen to 5.7%. Growth in households' M4 lending excluding
securitisations had eased to 9.9% in September.
A13 The twelve-month growth rate of PNFC's deposits had fallen back to 13.6% in September, as
some of August's special factors unwound, but was still exceptionally strong. The twelve-month
growth rate of M4 lending to PNFCs excluding securitisations had picked up to 17.5% in September.
Little of this strength had reflected borrowing by telecommunications companies, which appeared to
have borrowed primarily through issuing securities in the market.
A14 The twelve-month growth rates of OFCs' M4 and M4 lending (excluding securitisations) had
picked up to 14.0% and 18.2% respectively in September. The industrial breakdown of OFCs' deposits
had suggested that institutional investors had been making a strong positive contribution to growth this
year, although, up to Q2, insurance companies and pension funds' (ICPFs) holdings of money as a share
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