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investment in the service sector had grown by 2.2% in Q2 and by 3.0% compared with a year
earlier.
A23 Export growth in Q2 had been revised down from 2.6% to 2.0% and import growth from
2.3% to 2.2%. Accordingly, the net trade contribution to quarterly GDP growth had been revised
down from zero to -0.2 percentage points in Q2. The current account deficit had been broadly
unchanged in Q2 at £3.3 billion. Direct and portfolio investment outflows in Q2 had been broadly
offset by an inflow of other investments, mostly accounted for by changes in bank deposits and
lending.
A24 Employees' compensation growth had been weak in Q2: the 0.1% increase on the quarter had
been the smallest since 1967. The saving ratio had fallen to 3.0% in Q2, similar to its trough in
1988, though it had remained somewhat higher than its 1988 low on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Private non-financial corporations' gross operating surplus had risen by 3.3% in Q2. But their
financial deficit had been little changed at £3.6 billion, as increased dividend, interest and tax
payments had offset the increase in profits and the moderate reduction in investment.
A25 Turning to Q3, analysis by Bank staff had estimated that the negative effect of the petrol
supply disruption on GDP growth in Q3 would be relatively small, and would to a large extent
unwind in Q4. On the output side, leisure services, distribution and government output were
identified as the sectors likely to be most significantly affected. On the expenditure side, any
negative impact on consumption could be partly offset by higher stockbuilding.
A26 Retail sales had grown by 0.6% in August following zero growth in July. The BRC weekly
data had pointed to strong growth in early September but growth had subsequently been heavily
affected by the petrol dispute. The CBI Distributive Trades survey had indicated that retail sales
had been less buoyant than expected in September, with the net balance of respondents reporting an
annual increase in sales falling to +14 from +18 in August. The aggregate GfK measure of
consumer confidence had fallen to -5 in September, though this had also been negatively affected
by the petrol supply disruption. The MORI measure of consumer confidence had weakened
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