mpc:
4
may have been boosted.
A14 Particulars delivered and the number of mortgage approvals had both recovered from weaker
July figures, consistent with evidence that housing market activity had stabilised. Following the
National Accounts release, the Bank estimate of mortgage equity withdrawal in Q2 had been
revised to £3.3 billion, or 2.1% of disposable income.
A15 Private non-financial corporations' (PNFCs) M4 had picked up strongly in August (by
£5.5 billion), raising the twelve-month growth rate to 15.3%. M4 lending to PNFCs (excluding
securitisations) had also increased, by £3.4 billion, with the twelve-month growth rate at 16%. The
flow of external corporate finance had also remained strong in July/August, whereas investment by
PNFCs had been largely flat. Comparing the changes in the full range of PNFCs' sources and uses
of funds over the previous two years suggested that much of their increased borrowing had been
used for mergers and acquisitions and the acquisition of 3G licences.
A16 Since the September MPC meeting, short-term interest rate expectations, as measured by the
two-week gilt repo forward curve, had fallen slightly with an expected peak in base rates of just
above 6%. The yield curve had disinverted somewhat: yields at maturities beyond five years had
increased, with yields around 25 years 14 basis points higher. However, long corporate yields had
fallen slightly more than those of short corporate yields. Sterling corporate bond issuance had been
strong in Q3 and was more evenly spread across maturities than in the first half of the year.
A17 Survey measures of inflation expectations had shown a dichotomy between economist and
finance professionals relative to the Basix survey of the general public and trade union secretaries.
The former group's expectations remained largely unchanged, whereas the latter had shown a pick-
up in expectations of inflation a year ahead of 40-50 basis points since a month ago. The general
public survey had been carried out around the time of the petrol supply disruption. Retail interest
rates had been little changed since the September MPC meeting.
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