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ANNEX: SUMMARY OF DATA PRESENTED BY BANK STAFF

A1 This Annex summarises the analysis presented by Bank staff to the Monetary Policy Committee on 29 September in advance of its meeting on 4-5 October 2000. At the start of the meeting itself, members were made aware of information that had subsequently become available, and that information is included in this Annex.

I

The international environment

A2 Q2 GDP growth in the United States had been revised up slightly to 1.4% on the quarter (from 1.3%). Consensus forecasts for US growth in 2000 and 2001 had also been revised upwards (to 5.2% for 2000, and 3.7% for 2001). Industrial production had been 0.3% higher on the month in August, but the three-month growth rate had slowed from its peak in Q2. Quarterly US consumption growth in Q2 had been revised up to 0.8%. Monthly consumption data for July and August had ticked up slightly to give a growth rate of 0.9% in the three months to August, and this was consistent with the recent pick-up in the US consumer confidence survey. Investment had risen by 2.7% in Q2, making a strong contribution to GDP, and recent new orders data for the United States, while somewhat weaker, supported the view that this could continue into Q3. The National Association of Purchasing Managers index had risen marginally in September to 49.9. Export volumes had fallen sharply by 2.4% on the month in July, with import volumes up by 0.1%. A3 Euro-area GDP had grown by 0.9% in Q2. Consumption had remained strong, contributing 0.6 percentage points to growth. Investment in Q2 had been flat, and net trade had made a negative contribution. As reported in the previous month, German GDP had grown strongly in Q2 at 1.1% on the quarter. But the German IFO index had fallen for a third consecutive month in August, albeit only moderately, and in contrast with continued positive German orders data. The French economy had grown at 0.7% on the quarter, and Italian growth in Q2 had been 0.3%. The euro-area unemployment rate had remained unchanged at 9.0% in August.