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mpc: 7 19 The disruption to petrol supplies had plainly affected the surveys and would also affect official statistics in both the third and fourth quarters. Its direct effects were, however, hard to gauge. Staff estimates suggested that output in the third quarter might be as much as 0.2 percentage points lower as a result of the disruption, but that the effect on the third and fourth quarters together was likely to be minimal. These estimates were essentially judgmental: there were as yet no hard data. Some of the demand effects - for example, journeys and leisure activities forgone - might represent a permanent loss of output in those sectors, but the expenditure might simply have been switched to other goods; and there would be offsets in stockbuilding. The Bank's regional Agents reported that the disruption had had little impact on their manufacturing contacts, but that some retailers and leisure businesses had experienced a significant loss of trade which was unlikely to be recovered. 20 Looking further ahead, the disruption might nevertheless have more persistent effects on both business and consumer confidence. It was possible for example that there might be permanent effects on stock-holding levels, if businesses were to review their delivery strategies in the light of the disruption that had occurred (or might have done, had the shortages of fuel continued). Firms might be less willing to rely on `just in time' delivery arrangements, leading to increased stock holding throughout the supply chain, or might wish to maintain larger stocks of fuel. There was also anecdotal evidence pointing to hesitancy over investment plans. So while the data seemed a little weaker overall, it was difficult to separate the effects of the petrol supply disruption itself and its effects on confidence from the underlying trend. 21 The updated staff central estimate, ahead of the Committee's meeting, had been for output growth in the third quarter of around 0.6%, in line with the forecast in the August Inflation Report. The available information on expenditure suggested that the risks were on the downside. However, the Index of Production for August, which was available to the Committee, showed production growth of 0.6% in August and included upward revisions of 0.4 percentage points to the index for July. Manufacturing growth of 0.8% in August was also stronger than had been expected, with very strong growth in the output of electrical and optical equipment (which included output of mobile phones and related infrastructure goods). This stronger industrial production would by itself probably add 0.1 percentage points to the estimate for output growth in the third quarter, putting it somewhat above the Inflation Report projection,