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mpc: 6 A22 Retail sales volume growth had increased by 0.2% in November, following an upwardly-revised 0.8% rise in October. The three-month on three-month growth rate had continued to slow. The CBI distributive trades survey had shown a positive net balance of 41% of retailers reporting increased sales volumes in December, and a balance of 21% expecting volumes to rise in January. Consumer confidence remained high: the GfK measure rose by 3 points to a net balance of +1.7 in December. Figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders had shown total new car registrations in December 12.2% up on a year ago, although this comparison had been affected by the new registration month. Registrations for the whole of 1999 had been 2.2% lower than in 1998. A23 The Nationwide measure of annual house price inflation had remained unchanged in December at 13.3%. The Halifax measure had increased to 13.6%, the highest annual growth rate since August 1989. The monthly growth rate of the Halifax index had been 2.6% in December, but this followed a fall in November. Housing transactions, measured by the number of particulars delivered, had increased in December, but remained well below the levels seen in the late 1980s. Data from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors had shown a fall in the seasonally-adjusted net balance of estate agents reporting price rises in the three months to December. The sales balance had indicated a fall in the number of transactions. A24 Data on economic activity in the fourth quarter of 1999 had remained strong in general. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) manufacturing activity index had increased to 56.1 in December, from 54.7 in the previous month, although the output balance had been broadly flat over the last six months. The CBI monthly industrial trends survey showed a slight strengthening of orders and output expectations. The CIPS construction index rose to 58.2 in December, and although the CIPS services index had fallen to 58.3 in December it continued to indicate growth.

IV

The labour market

A25 Employment growth had been more subdued than it had seemed from the previous two months' data. LFS employment had increased by 66,000 (0.2%) in the three months to October compared to the previous three months. Workforce jobs had fallen by 48,000 during Q3.

Both the slower LFS employment growth (by comparison with previous, overlapping, LFS data) and the decline in workforce jobs had been driven by a large fall in self-employment. Workforce jobs, however, were generally more